Ji et al. (2026) Transition in Global Basins From Precipitation‐Dominated to Evaporative Demand‐Dominated Meteorological Drought: Past Patterns and Future Projections

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-31
• Authors: Jiachen Ji, Chiyuan MIAO, Jinlong Hu, Jiajia Su, Shidie Chen, Yufei Wang, Yunning Kong, Xiaoyong Bai, Yiying Wang
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007492

Research Groups

[Not specified in the abstract.]

Short Summary

This study developed a systematic framework to attribute drought drivers across 292 major global basins, revealing a widespread historical transition where nearly half of the global basin area shifted from precipitation-dominated to evaporative demand-dominated drought, a trend projected to be largely irreversible and intensify in the future.

Objective

• To systematically attribute drought drivers (precipitation deficits vs. evaporative demand) across major global basins and determine whether an increasing influence of evaporative demand represents a global trend.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 292 major global basins, covering 6.43 × 10^7 square kilometers of global basin area.
• Temporal Scale: Historical analysis from 1970 to 2024, with future projections extending through 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) variant experiment, bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models.
• Data sources: Climate model outputs (CMIP6), and derived precipitation and evapotranspiration data used for SPEI calculation.

Main Results

• A widespread global transition was observed, with 48.1% of the global basin area (6.43 × 10^7 square kilometers) transitioning from precipitation-dominated to evaporative demand-dominated drought.
• This transition accelerated after 2000, originating in arid continental interiors and expanding outwards, resulting in precipitation-dominated areas being only one-tenth the size of evaporative demand-dominated ones.
• Future projections indicate this transition is largely irreversible, with over 80% of historically transitioned basins projected to remain evaporative demand-dominated through 2100.
• Basins that have not yet transitioned are also projected to transition towards either evaporative demand-dominated or precipitation and evaporative demand co-dominated drought states.
• Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 scenario, the global area of evaporative demand-dominated droughts is projected to be 17.6% larger by 2100 than under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.

Contributions

• Developed a systematic global framework to attribute drought drivers, moving beyond regional case studies to establish a global trend.
• Provided quantitative evidence of a widespread and accelerating global transition towards evaporative demand-dominated droughts.
• Offered future projections highlighting the irreversibility of this transition and its intensification under different climate scenarios.
• Emphasized the urgent need for both climate mitigation and proactive adaptation strategies to address this new reality of drought drivers.

Funding

[Not specified in the abstract.]

Citation

@article{Ji2026Transition,
  author = {Ji, Jiachen and MIAO, Chiyuan and Hu, Jinlong and Su, Jiajia and Chen, Shidie and Wang, Yufei and Kong, Yunning and Bai, Xiaoyong and Wang, Yiying},
  title = {Transition in Global Basins From Precipitation‐Dominated to Evaporative Demand‐Dominated Meteorological Drought: Past Patterns and Future Projections},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007492},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007492}
}