Sandi et al. (2026) Assessment of Future Nonstationary Changes in Extreme Sea Levels Considering Climate Change for Southeast Asia Using High‐Resolution Climate Forcing

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Calvin Sandi, Takuya Miyashita, Tomoya Shimura, Nobuhito Mori
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007530

Research Groups

• National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan
• Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Japan

Short Summary

This study assesses the nonstationary behavior of extreme total water levels and extreme coastal water levels along Southeast Asia's coastline under a high-emission climate scenario, highlighting significant changes driven by sea level rise, storm surge, and wave components.

Objective

• Investigate the projected nonstationary behavior of extreme total water levels (ETWL) and extreme coastal water levels (ECWL) along the Southeast Asian coastline under the high-emission climate scenario.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale covering Southeast Asia's coastline.
• Temporal Scale: Projections from 2020 to 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: MRI-AGCM3.2 for storm surge and ocean waves, regional sea level anomaly, and tide data.
• Data sources: Seamless projection data set, reanalysis data.

Main Results

• Approximately half of the study region exhibits significant nonstationary changes in extremes, with model choice influencing trend direction and magnitude.
• Sea level rise (SLR) is the dominant contributor to future increases in ETWL and ECWL.
• Storm surge and wave components show spatially heterogeneous changes driven by future shifts in tropical cyclones (TCs) frequency, intensity, and tracks.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive regional assessment of compound coastal hazards under climate change, offering insights for large-scale risk management and coastal planning.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Sandi2026Assessment,
  author = {Sandi, Calvin and Miyashita, Takuya and Shimura, Tomoya and Mori, Nobuhito},
  title = {Assessment of Future Nonstationary Changes in Extreme Sea Levels Considering Climate Change for Southeast Asia Using High‐Resolution Climate Forcing},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007530},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007530}
}