Zhang et al. (2026) Climate Change Increases Water Scarcity Risks and Adaptation Needs in China

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-01
• Authors: Yuqian Zhang, Yunhe Yin, Mijia Yin, Xuezheng Zong
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007712

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study developed a novel event-scale framework to quantify sector-specific water use responses to meteorological droughts across mainland China from 1981 to 2020, revealing that droughts, despite affecting a small land area, accounted for a disproportionately large share of water use, particularly in northern basins driven by irrigation, leading to increased water scarcity risks by 2100.

Objective

• To quantify sector-specific responses of water use to meteorological droughts across mainland China.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mainland China.
• Temporal Scale: Historical analysis from 1981 to 2020; future projections up to 2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: An event-scale framework integrating time series decomposition, deep learning, and event coincidence analysis.
• Data sources: Monthly water use data and meteorological data.

Main Results

• Droughts impacted 14.9% of mainland China's land area but accounted for 47.4% of total water use.
• Northern basins exhibited particular sensitivity, with water use increasing by 5.67% (ranging from 4.49% to 6.37%) during drought events.
• Irrigation was identified as the primary driver of water use changes, with demand rising as drought intensity increased.
• Projections indicate that by 2100, over 10% of affected regions could face high water scarcity risks under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, potentially increasing to 25.5% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Contributions

• Developed a novel event-scale framework for quantifying sector-specific water use responses to meteorological droughts.
• Provided a comprehensive, spatially explicit quantification of water use dynamics in response to drought across mainland China.
• Highlighted pronounced spatial disparities in drought responses and underscored the necessity of incorporating water use dynamics into climate risk assessments.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Zhang2026Climate,
  author = {Zhang, Yuqian and Yin, Yunhe and Yin, Mijia and Zong, Xuezheng},
  title = {Climate Change Increases Water Scarcity Risks and Adaptation Needs in China},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007712},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007712}
}