Kim et al. (2026) Global Terrestrial Water Storage Projections and Uncertainty Decomposition Under Multiple Warming Levels

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Jun Ho Kim, Kichul Jung, Kuk‐Hyun Ahn
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007835

Research Groups

• Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine
• Climate Change Research Center, University of New South Wales
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study assesses future Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) changes under different climate scenarios and model structures, highlighting the dominant role of global climate models in uncertainty.

Objective

• Investigate the response of TWS to climate change at 1.0°C, 2.0°C, and 3.0°C above pre-industrial conditions

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale with regional focus on high-latitude, tropical, and subtropical regions
• Temporal Scale: Historical (1980-2018) and future projections (2020-2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Five CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs), four global hydrologic models (GHMs)
• Data sources: Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mascon observations, satellite data

Main Results

• TWS changes become more widespread and consistent across models with increasing warming intensity
• High-latitude regions exhibit TWS increases linked to increased precipitation
• Tropical and subtropical regions experience TWS declines driven by rising evaporative demand
• Global TWS uncertainty is dominated by GCMs, particularly in high-latitude and cold-climate regions

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive assessment of future TWS changes under different climate scenarios and model structures
• Highlights the importance of multi-GCM, multi-GHM, and multi-parameter ensembles for developing robust adaptation strategies

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant #1850439
• Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project DP190100372

Citation

@article{Kim2026Global,
  author = {Kim, Jun Ho and Jung, Kichul and Ahn, Kuk‐Hyun},
  title = {Global Terrestrial Water Storage Projections and Uncertainty Decomposition Under Multiple Warming Levels},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007835},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007835}
}