Seubert et al. (2026) Global River Discharge Projections From a Large Multi‐Model Ensemble of CMIP6 and ISIMIP3b Simulations

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-01
• Authors: Pauline Seubert, Stephan Thober, Dominik L. Schumacher, Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne, Lukas Gudmundsson
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007982

Research Groups

• Hydrology and Climate Group, University of Oxford
• Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge
• International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Short Summary

This study assesses global changes in river flow under anthropogenic warming using a multi-model ensemble approach, combining online and offline simulations. The results show that annual mean and extreme river discharge are projected to decrease in some regions and increase in others.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of global warming on river discharge at different spatial and temporal scales

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on major river basins and regions
• Temporal Scale: 250 years (1850–2099), including pre-industrial baseline and future projections under increasing global warming levels

Methodology and Data

• Models used: mRM routing model, combined with CMIP6 and ISIMIP3b simulations
• Data sources: Grid-cell runoff from climate models, bias-adjusted using ISIMIP3b approach for offline simulations

Main Results

• Annual mean river discharge is projected to decrease by 10-20% in the Mediterranean, Central America, large parts of South America, and Southern Africa at 3.0°C global warming
• Increase in Central Africa, South Asia, and high northern latitudes
• Seasonal mean flow changes mirror annual projections, except for drying in high northern latitudes during boreal summer

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of global warming on river discharge at different spatial and temporal scales, contributing to our understanding of the hydrological cycle under climate change.

Funding

• European Research Council (ERC) grant "HydroClim" (ERC-2018-ADG-835536)
• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant "Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology" (Award #1836461)
• German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) grant "KliWaRi" (01LP1902A)

Citation

@article{Seubert2026Global,
  author = {Seubert, Pauline and Thober, Stephan and Schumacher, Dominik L. and Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle and Gudmundsson, Lukas},
  title = {Global River Discharge Projections From a Large Multi‐Model Ensemble of CMIP6 and ISIMIP3b Simulations},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007982},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007982}
}