Eldardiry et al. (2026) Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Hisham Eldardiry, Ning Sun, Nathalie Voisin
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef007984

Research Groups

• University of California, Berkeley (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering)
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study quantifies shifts in reservoir drought signatures across five heavily regulated US basins under rising temperatures, providing a novel continental-scale benchmark for reservoir droughts to support multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts.

Objective

• Investigate the impacts of rising temperatures on reservoir drought resilience and identify regional disparities in reservoir drought signatures.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental scale (five heavily regulated US basins)
• Temporal Scale: Multi-decadal (simulated over 30 years)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Atmosphere-land-river models coupled with reservoir operations at ∼12-km resolution
• Data sources: Reservoir storage data, water demands, and operational rules

Main Results

• Significant regional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under rising temperatures
• Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region become more resilient, while those in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations (increasing by ∼6–10 months) and slower recovery (with recovery times increasing by up to three-to fourfold)
• Reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower are most susceptible to future drought stress, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation

Contributions

• Provides a novel continental-scale benchmark for reservoir droughts to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts
• Identifies regional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under rising temperatures, informing targeted adaptation strategies

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant #XXXXX
• US Department of Energy (DOE) contract #YYYYY

Citation

@article{Eldardiry2026Reservoir,
  author = {Eldardiry, Hisham and Sun, Ning and Voisin, Nathalie},
  title = {Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef007984},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef007984}
}