Zhang et al. (2026) Dam Regulation Moderates Climate‐Induced Rice Yield Loss in the Mekong‐Tonle Sap Lake System

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-27
• Authors: Keer Zhang, Khosro Morovati, Anton Urfels, Fuqiang Tian
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ef008053

Research Groups

• International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP)
• University of Cambridge
• University of California, Berkeley

Short Summary

This study develops an integrated agro-hydrological framework to quantify the impact of human activities on inundation-induced losses in rice production under climate change. The framework is applied to the Lancang-Mekong River Basin, focusing on Tonle Sap Lake.

Objective

• Investigate the capacity of human activities to mitigate inundation impacts on rice production under climate change

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Lancang-Mekong River Basin)
• Temporal Scale: Long-term (1980-2100)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Integrated agro-hydrological framework
• Data sources: Climate forcing data from reanalysis, hydrological regulation data from satellite observations

Main Results

• Average inundation-induced rice losses decline in the near future (2021-2060) across all SSP scenarios.
• Losses increase relative to the near future in the far future (2061-2100), but remain below the baseline under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5.
• Extreme losses are possible, with a maximum projected loss of US$160 million under far-future SSP5-8.5.

Contributions

• This study provides an original framework for climate-resilient assessment of coupled water-agriculture systems in flood-dependent rice regions.
• The results highlight the importance of reservoir operation and planting date adjustment in reducing inundation-induced losses.

Funding

• European Research Council (ERC) under grant agreement 724773
• National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant agreement 1755326

Citation

@article{Zhang2026Dam,
  author = {Zhang, Keer and Morovati, Khosro and Urfels, Anton and Tian, Fuqiang},
  title = {Dam Regulation Moderates Climate‐Induced Rice Yield Loss in the Mekong‐Tonle Sap Lake System},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ef008053},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ef008053}
}