Cai et al. (2026) Compound Hot‐Dry Extremes Amplify Disproportionate Climate Risks for Low‐Income Nations

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-07
• Authors: Di Cai, Gerrit Lohmann, Xi Chen, Monica Ionita
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl118822

Research Groups

Not specified in abstract.

Short Summary

This study provides a global and cross-national assessment of future risks from compound hot-dry extremes, revealing that under current policies leading to approximately 2.7°C warming by 2100, 28.5% ± 9.3% of the global population (approximately 2.6 ± 0.9 billion people) may face heightened exposure, with low-income and tropical island nations disproportionately affected.

Objective

• To provide a globally comparable and cross-national assessment of the future risks posed by compound hot-dry extremes under current climate policies.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, cross-national, with specific focus on tropical island nations and a comparison between low-income and high-income countries.
• Temporal Scale: Future projections, specifically by 2100, under a scenario of approximately 2.7°C global warming.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified in abstract.
• Data sources: Not specified in abstract.

Main Results

• Under current policies, leading to approximately 2.7°C warming by 2100, 28.5% ± 9.3% of the global population (approximately 2.6 ± 0.9 billion people) may face heightened compound hot-dry extremes.
• The cumulative lifetime emissions of approximately 3.4 average global citizens (or approximately 1.2 average US citizens) could expose one individual to these conditions by the end of the century.
• Tropical island nations are projected to experience the most severe increases in compound hot-dry extremes.
• Low-income countries are projected to suffer more frequently from these extremes than high-income countries, despite contributing minimally to global emissions.

Contributions

• Addresses a critical gap by providing a globally comparable and cross-national assessment of future risks from compound hot-dry extremes.
• Quantifies the projected population exposure to these extreme events under a specific future warming scenario.
• Highlights the significant socio-economic disparities in climate change impacts, emphasizing the disproportionate burden on low-income countries and tropical island nations.
• Links individual cumulative greenhouse gas emissions to future exposure risk, providing a tangible metric for policy discussion.

Funding

Not specified in abstract.

Citation

@article{Cai2026Compound,
  author = {Cai, Di and Lohmann, Gerrit and Chen, Xi and Ionita, Monica},
  title = {Compound Hot‐Dry Extremes Amplify Disproportionate Climate Risks for Low‐Income Nations},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl118822},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118822}
}