Ma et al. (2026) Attribution of the Record‐Breaking June 2024 Eastern Mediterranean Heatwave: Contrasting Roles of Soil Moisture in Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Variability

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Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-24
• Authors: Kangjie Ma, Haipeng Yu, Ruixia Guo, Dongping Bai, Mengjing Fu
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl121002

Research Groups

• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
• University of Reading

Short Summary

This study investigates the relative contributions of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability to a record-breaking June 2024 heatwave in the Eastern Mediterranean, attributing roughly half to greenhouse gas-induced warming and soil drying. Anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns driven by North Atlantic SST anomalies play a significant role.

Objective

• Investigate the roles of anthropogenic forcing, natural variability, atmospheric circulation, and soil moisture in shaping the June 2024 heatwave in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Eastern Mediterranean)
• Temporal Scale: Monthly (June 2024)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ERA5 reanalysis, HadGEM3-A-N216 attribution simulations
• Data sources: Reanalysis data from ECMWF

Main Results

• Anthropogenic forcing contributes roughly half of the temperature anomalies through greenhouse gas-induced warming and soil drying.
• Natural variability accounts for the remaining half, dominated by an anomalous anticyclone driven by an upstream wave train and associated with positive North Atlantic SST anomalies.
• Wetter soil within the natural variability component produces a slight cooling that partially offsets circulation-induced temperature anomalies.

Contributions

• This study highlights contrasting soil moisture roles during heatwaves, demonstrating that anomalously wet soil can prevent even more intense events.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Ma2026Attribution,
  author = {Ma, Kangjie and Yu, Haipeng and Guo, Ruixia and Bai, Dongping and Fu, Mengjing},
  title = {Attribution of the Record‐Breaking June 2024 Eastern Mediterranean Heatwave: Contrasting Roles of Soil Moisture in Anthropogenic Forcing and Natural Variability},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl121002},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121002}
}