Ng et al. (2026) Is Europe Under UNSEEN Risk of Cyclones of Tropical Origin?

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-30
• Authors: Kelvin S. Ng, E. Bianco, K.I. Hodges, Gregor C. Leckebusch
• DOI: 10.1029/2025gl121080

Research Groups

• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
• University of [Unknown]

Short Summary

This study investigates the impacts and multidecadal variability of cyclones of tropical origin (CTOs) making landfall or passing near Europe, using a novel approach to generate CTO event sets from twentieth-century hindcasts. The results indicate that CTOs pose a significant risk to European regions.

Objective

• Investigate the characteristics and impacts of cyclones of tropical origin (CTOs) making landfall or passing near Europe

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale, focusing on Europe
• Temporal Scale: Twentieth century, with multidecadal variability analysis

Methodology and Data

• Models used: UNSEEN approach (UNprecedented Simulation of Extremes using Ensembles)
• Data sources: ERA-20C reanalysis data

Main Results

• CTO-Es pose a greater risk to the British Isles than to continental Europe
• The CTO-EI to CTO-E ratio is insensitive to Pacific Decadal Oscillation or Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting largely stochastic occurrences under favorable conditions
• Estimated return period of historical CTO-EIs: 21.2-32.9 years for single events and 47.8-91.5 years for doubled-severity events

Contributions

• Provides a novel approach to generate CTO event sets from twentieth-century hindcasts, enabling robust hazard assessment
• Offers insights into the multidecadal variability of CTOs and their impacts on European regions

Funding

• [Unknown]

Citation

@article{Ng2026Is,
  author = {Ng, Kelvin S. and Bianco, E. and Hodges, K.I. and Leckebusch, Gregor C.},
  title = {Is Europe Under UNSEEN Risk of Cyclones of Tropical Origin?},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025gl121080},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl121080}
}