Miao et al. (2026) How Much of the Interannual Variability in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Is Driven by Sea Surface Temperature? Evidence From CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulations

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-03
• Authors: Guolong Miao, Cunbao Wang, Liguang Wu, Jian Cao, Hang Zhao
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd044812

Research Groups

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) contributing institutions (for the five high-resolution atmospheric models).

Short Summary

This study investigates the extent to which observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) drive interannual variability in Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity using five high-resolution atmospheric models. It finds that SST forcing accounts for approximately 30%–40% of the observed interannual variability, primarily through its influence on large-scale environmental conditions, but over half of the variability remains unexplained by SSTs.

Objective

• To examine the extent to which interannual variability in Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity can be driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, using high-resolution atmospheric models.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Western North Pacific (WNP) basin.
• Temporal Scale: Interannual variability over the period 1980–2014.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Five high-resolution atmospheric models from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP).
• Data sources: Observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used as forcing for the atmospheric models; observed tropical cyclone activity for comparison and validation.

Main Results

• SST-forced simulations collectively reproduce key climatological characteristics of WNP TC activity, including spatial distribution and seasonal evolution.
• The multi-model mean captures interannual variations in TC genesis frequency, track frequency, and power dissipation index (PDI) over 1980–2014.
• Statistically significant correlation coefficients between simulated and observed interannual variability are 0.51 for genesis frequency, 0.62 for track frequency, and 0.65 for PDI.
• SST forcing accounts for approximately 30%–40% of the observed interannual variability in WNP TC activity.
• This SST-driven variability is closely linked to realistic simulations of large-scale environmental conditions, as quantified by the dynamic genesis potential index.
• Trans-basin SST anomalies, particularly those associated with the Pacific Meridional Mode, the Indian Ocean, and the North Atlantic, play a dominant role in modulating these large-scale environments.
• Over half of the interannual variance in WNP TC activity cannot be forced by SST, indicating limitations for SST-based seasonal prediction.

Contributions

• Quantifies the proportion of interannual variability in WNP TC activity that can be attributed to SST forcing (30%–40%).
• Demonstrates the capability of high-resolution atmospheric models forced by observed SSTs to reproduce key climatological and interannual features of WNP TC activity.
• Highlights the dominant role of trans-basin SST anomalies in modulating large-scale environmental conditions relevant to TC genesis.
• Identifies the significant portion (over 50%) of WNP TC interannual variability that is not explained by SST forcing, underscoring the need for further research into additional drivers and the limits of SST-based seasonal prediction.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Miao2026How,
  author = {Miao, Guolong and Wang, Cunbao and Wu, Liguang and Cao, Jian and Zhao, Hang},
  title = {How Much of the Interannual Variability in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Is Driven by Sea Surface Temperature? Evidence From CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulations},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd044812},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044812}
}