Zhang et al. (2026) Anthropogenic Forcings Intensify Droughts More Severely in Drylands than in Humid Regions

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-30
• Authors: Yanting Zhang, Renguang Wu, Xiao‐Tong Zheng, Jue Mei, Lin Sun
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd044821

Research Groups

[Not specified in abstract]

Short Summary

This study investigates the human influence on droughts of different durations and their regional variations between drylands and humid regions. It finds that human activities, primarily rising greenhouse gas emissions, intensify long-term droughts, particularly in drylands, with aerosols exhibiting complex, regionally dependent effects.

Objective

• To investigate how human activities influence droughts of different durations.
• To determine if these human impacts on droughts differ between drylands and humid regions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, differentiating between drylands and humid regions.
• Temporal Scale: Analysis of droughts of different durations (short-term, long-term, multi-year) over historical periods, including "past decades."

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Four sets of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations.
• Data sources: Multi-source observations used to derive the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).

Main Results

• Human activities cause an intensification of long-term droughts, particularly in drylands.
• This intensification is primarily attributed to rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
• Both GHGs and aerosols exert stronger impacts on droughts in drylands compared to humid regions.
• Aerosols partly offset the intensifying effect of GHGs on droughts.
• GHGs contribute to more extreme multi-year droughts over drylands by amplifying temperature-induced water demand.
• Aerosols reduce drought occurrence in drylands by enhancing precipitation.
• Aerosols had precipitation-suppressing effects in humid areas in past decades, contrasting their effect in drylands.

Contributions

• Quantifies the dependence of human influence on the duration of droughts.
• Differentiates the impacts of human activities (specifically GHGs and aerosols) on droughts between drylands and humid regions.
• Highlights the dominant role of rising GHG emissions in intensifying long-term droughts, particularly in drylands.
• Reveals contrasting regional effects of aerosols on precipitation and drought occurrence, challenging previous understandings of aerosol impacts in humid regions versus drylands.

Funding

[Not specified in abstract]

Citation

@article{Zhang2026Anthropogenic,
  author = {Zhang, Yanting and Wu, Renguang and Zheng, Xiao‐Tong and Mei, Jue and Sun, Lin},
  title = {Anthropogenic Forcings Intensify Droughts More Severely in Drylands than in Humid Regions},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd044821},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd044821}
}