Wang et al. (2026) Future Climate Projections of Hazardous Convective Weather Using an Ensemble of Environment‐Informed, Convection‐Permitting Dynamical Downscaling Simulations

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-03-27
• Authors: S.S. Wang, Robert J. Trapp, John Allen, Deepak Gopalakrishnan, Eric D. Robinsòn
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd045354

Research Groups

[Information not available in the abstract]

Short Summary

This study introduces "environment-informed" convection-permitting dynamical downscaling (CPDD) to efficiently generate ensembles of hazardous convective weather (HCW) projections driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs). It demonstrates that future supercell occurrences, a key HCW indicator, vary significantly across GCMs, projecting an increased frequency over the Missouri Bootheel and an earlier start to the annual HCW risk cycle.

Objective

• To present "environment-informed" convection-permitting dynamical downscaling (CPDD) as an efficient method to generate a CPDD ensemble driven by different Global Climate Models (GCMs) for projecting hazardous convective weather (HCW).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: United States; geographical domains favoring supercell thunderstorms; an area centered on the Missouri Bootheel.
• Temporal Scale: Future projections; annual cycle of HCW risk; subset of days when meteorological conditions favor supercell thunderstorms.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Convection-permitting dynamical downscaling (CPDD); "environment-informed" CPDD; 8 different Global Climate Models (GCMs).
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis.

Main Results

• The temporal and geospatial occurrence of supercells over the United States, as downscaled from different GCMs, varies considerably, underscoring the value of an ensemble approach for uncertainty assessment.
• Based on the ensemble mean, future supercell occurrence is projected to be most frequent over an area centered on the Missouri Bootheel.
• An earlier start to the annual cycle of hazardous convective weather (HCW) risk is also projected.

Contributions

• Introduction of "environment-informed" CPDD as an efficient method to generate multi-GCM ensembles for hazardous convective weather projections.
• Addresses the limitation of computationally expensive single-experiment CPDD projections by enabling uncertainty assessment through ensembles.
• Provides ensemble-based projections of future supercell occurrence and changes in the annual cycle of HCW risk over the United States.

Funding

[Information not available in the abstract]

Citation

@article{Wang2026Future,
  author = {Wang, S.S. and Trapp, Robert J. and Allen, John and Gopalakrishnan, Deepak and Robinsòn, Eric D.},
  title = {Future Climate Projections of Hazardous Convective Weather Using an Ensemble of Environment‐Informed, Convection‐Permitting Dynamical Downscaling Simulations},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd045354},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd045354}
}