Dash et al. (2026) Factors Behind Change in Extremes: Change in Precipitation Is Dominated by Its Variability Whereas Change in Temperature by Its Mean

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-03
• Authors: Subhasmita Dash, Rajib Maity
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd045639

Research Groups

• Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)
• National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

Short Summary

This study analyzes past and future changes in hydroclimatic extremes across the Indian mainland, focusing on temperature and precipitation variability. The results indicate that increased mean temperature dominates temperature extremes, while increased variability drives precipitation extremes.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of warming-induced changes on hydroclimatic extremes in India

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Entire Indian mainland
• Temporal Scale: Daily data from 1996–2020 and future projections until 2076–2100

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified, but based on climate change scenarios (SSP5-8.5)
• Data sources: Observational data for temperature and precipitation extremes

Main Results

• Temperature extremes increase three-fold by 2050 in southern regions under SSP5-8.5 scenario.
• Precipitation variability increases two-fold by 2076–2100 across more than half of India under the same scenario.
• Decline in temperature variability projected across many parts of the country.

Contributions

• Provides a probability-based change index to analyze past and future changes in hydroclimatic extremes.
• Highlights the dominant role of mean temperature increase on temperature extremes and increased variability on precipitation extremes.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Dash2026Factors,
  author = {Dash, Subhasmita and Maity, Rajib},
  title = {Factors Behind Change in Extremes: Change in Precipitation Is Dominated by Its Variability Whereas Change in Temperature by Its Mean},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd045639},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd045639}
}