Choi et al. (2026) Uncertainty in California Winter Precipitation Linked to Future Projections of North Pacific Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-06
• Authors: Jung Ho Choi, Paul Aaron Ullrich, Jiwoo Lee, Peter J. Gleckler, Seth Goodnight, Seok‐Woo Son
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd045669

Research Groups

• University of California, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study evaluates projected changes in winter precipitation over California using a high-resolution data set downscaled from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 projections and explores the relationship between these changes and North Pacific Subtropical High variability.

Objective

• Investigate the influence of North Pacific air-sea coupling on future changes in California winter precipitation

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (California)
• Temporal Scale: Seasonal (winter)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) projections
• Data sources: LOCA2-HybridCA data set, downscaled from CMIP6

Main Results

• Substantial inter-model diversity in future winter precipitation changes over California is closely related to uncertainty in North Pacific Subtropical High variability.
• The relationship between NPSH latitude changes and winter precipitation changes is strongest along the Central Coast, where 53% of the diversity in winter precipitation changes among models is explained by the diversity in NPSH latitude changes.

Contributions

• This study highlights the importance of accurately representing North Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions for reducing uncertainty in California's future hydroclimate.
• The findings suggest that North Pacific air-sea coupling plays a significant role in shaping future changes in California winter precipitation.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant # [insert grant number]
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Grant # [insert grant number]

Citation

@article{Choi2026Uncertainty,
  author = {Choi, Jung Ho and Ullrich, Paul Aaron and Lee, Jiwoo and Gleckler, Peter J. and Goodnight, Seth and Son, Seok‐Woo},
  title = {Uncertainty in California Winter Precipitation Linked to Future Projections of North Pacific Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd045669},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd045669}
}