Chen et al. (2026) Reduced Spring Extratropical Cyclone Activity Over the East Asian Subtropical Region has Suppressed Regional Precipitation From 1979 to 2023

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-11
• Authors: Xiaopeng Chen, Zhongxian Li, Botao Zhou, Yong Jiang, Jinghao Zhang
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd045731

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study analyzes extratropical cyclone (EC) characteristics and their linkage to precipitation in the East Asian subtropical region during spring (1979–2023), revealing significant decreasing trends in both EC genesis and precipitation, primarily driven by non-uniform near-surface warming that suppresses ECs, subsequently weakening dynamic ascent and moisture transport.

Objective

• To analyze the characteristics and long-term trends of extratropical cyclones (ECs) over the East Asian subtropical region (110°–140°E, 25°–35°N) in spring during 1979–2023.
• To explore the linkage between the long-term trends of ECs and concurrent precipitation in the region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: East Asian subtropical region (110°–140°E, 25°–35°N), encompassing eastern China to the south of Japan.
• Temporal Scale: Spring season during the period 1979–2023, using six-hourly data.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Objective identification and tracking methods for extratropical cyclones.
• Data sources: European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) six-hourly reanalysis data set.

Main Results

• Both the genesis frequency of extratropical cyclones (ECs) and the precipitation within the East Asian subtropical region exhibited significant decreasing trends during spring from 1979 to 2023.
• A high positive correlation (coefficient of 0.64) was found between the East Asian subtropical extratropical cyclone index and the East Asian subtropical precipitation index.
• Non-uniform near-surface warming across East Asia has suppressed the genesis of ECs over the subtropical region.
• The decline in ECs impacts precipitation through two main pathways:
  • Dynamic pathway: Reduced ECs lead to weakened upper-level divergence, particularly over southeastern China, and suppressed mid-level vertical ascent in the East Asian subtropical region.
  • Moisture pathway: Weakened low-level cyclonic circulation reduces moisture transport from the South China Sea, resulting in decreased low-level moisture convergence within the study region.
• These combined factors collectively inhibit spring precipitation in the East Asian subtropical region.

Contributions

This study provides a novel perspective for understanding the underlying mechanisms driving the observed decline in East Asian subtropical spring precipitation in the context of global warming, specifically highlighting the role of suppressed extratropical cyclone activity.

Funding

Not explicitly stated in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Chen2026Reduced,
  author = {Chen, Xiaopeng and Li, Zhongxian and Zhou, Botao and Jiang, Yong and Zhang, Jinghao},
  title = {Reduced Spring Extratropical Cyclone Activity Over the East Asian Subtropical Region has Suppressed Regional Precipitation From 1979 to 2023},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd045731},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd045731}
}