Cetin et al. (2026) High‐Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region Using the Pseudo‐Global Warming Method With a CMIP6 Ensemble: Wind Energy Resource Availability

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-22
• Authors: Irem Isik Cetin, İsmail Yücel, S. Çağatay Bağçacı, M. Tuğrul Yılmaz
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd045816

Research Groups

• Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Mediterranean Region
• Institute of Meteorology and Climate Change, Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Regional Center

Short Summary

This study dynamically downscaled ERA5 data using WRF to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea (EMBS) region. The results show significant spatio-temporal changes in wind power density (WPD) under a high-emission scenario.

Objective

• Investigate how climate change may impact wind energy resources in regions with complex topography, specifically the EMBS region.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 4 km resolution over the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea region.
• Temporal Scale: Historical periods and far future under the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP)5–8.5 scenario.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, both in its original form and perturbed version within the framework of the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) method.
• Data sources: ERA5 data, CMIP6 ensemble for perturbation deltas.

Main Results

• High inter-annual and seasonal variability in wind speed across the region resulted in important spatio-temporal changes in wind power density (WPD).
• Annual, summer, and autumn averages of WPD are projected to increase by up to 50 Wm−2 in the Aegean Sea.
• Winter WPD changes are projected to be negative for mountainous regions and positive for relatively non-complex regions.

Contributions

• This study constitutes the inaugural implementation of PGW with a CMIP6 ensemble for wind resource indicators in the EMBS region, providing valuable insights into climate change impacts on wind energy resources in complex topography regions.

Funding

• Project code: "Climate Change Impacts on Wind Energy Resources" (CCIWER)
• Reference codes: ERC-2019-ADG-853740 and TÜBİTAK 120C021

Citation

@article{Cetin2026HighResolution,
  author = {Cetin, Irem Isik and Yücel, İsmail and Bağçacı, S. Çağatay and Yılmaz, M. Tuğrul},
  title = {High‐Resolution Climate Simulations Over the Eastern Mediterranean Black Sea Region Using the Pseudo‐Global Warming Method With a CMIP6 Ensemble: Wind Energy Resource Availability},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd045816},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd045816}
}