Zhang et al. (2026) Increased Likelihood and Intensification of Global Agricultural Droughts Under Compound Meteorological Droughts and Hot Extremes

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-28
• Authors: Yitong Zhang, Zengchao Hao, Guocan Wu
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd045918

Research Groups

• Department of Agricultural Water Management, Wageningen University & Research
• Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) program

Short Summary

This study assesses the impact of compound meteorological droughts and hot extremes on soil moisture deficits globally, revealing increased probabilities and severity under these conditions. The findings provide valuable insights for agricultural drought risk assessment under climate change.

Objective

• Investigate how elevated temperatures intensify soil moisture deficits across different climate zones

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global land areas
• Temporal Scale: 1981–2022 period, with a focus on the 2002–2022 sub-period for analysis of trends

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Random forest models combined with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis
• Data sources: Satellite data, observation-based datasets, and reanalysis products

Main Results

• The probability of soil moisture deficits increases by 50.91% and 62.16% in surface and root-zone soil layers, respectively, under CDHEs compared to meteorological drought-only periods.
• Soil moisture deficits are more severe under CDHEs than under meteorological droughts alone.

Contributions

• This study provides the first global-scale assessment of how elevated temperatures intensify soil moisture deficits across different climate zones.
• The findings highlight distinct driving mechanisms across climate zones, providing valuable insights for agricultural drought risk assessment under climate change.

Funding

• This research was supported by the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) program, with funding from various projects and programs, including:
  • CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
  • Wageningen University & Research's internal funding for climate change research

Citation

@article{Zhang2026Increased,
  author = {Zhang, Yitong and Hao, Zengchao and Pang, Yuting and Wu, Guocan},
  title = {Increased Likelihood and Intensification of Global Agricultural Droughts Under Compound Meteorological Droughts and Hot Extremes},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd045918},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd045918}
}