He et al. (2026) Projecting Extreme Wet‐Cold Events in Southern China Based on CMIP6 Experiments With Emergent Constraints of Observable Temperature Inversion

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Yuan He, Shuanglin Li, Stefan Liess, Feifei Luo, Sijing Huang
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd046198

Research Groups

• National Climate Center (NCC)
• Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)

Short Summary

This study analyzes the trend and projections of extreme wet-cold events (WCEs) in southern China, using observational data from 1960 to 2020 and constrained climate model simulations.

Objective

• Investigate the trend and characteristics of WCEs in southern China
• Project future changes in WCEs under different emission scenarios

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southern China
• Temporal Scale: Daily, 1960-2020 (historical) and 2021-2100 (future projections)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 models (26 models)
• Data sources: Gauged precipitation and 2 m-temperatures from 753 stations across mainland China, lower-tropospheric temperature inversion data

Main Results

• The total WCE days show a decreasing trend in the observational record.
• Constrained climate model simulations reduce uncertainty in WCE projections, indicating an intensification of WCEs and decreases in occurrence, spatial extent, and duration.
• Future changes in WCEs under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios project increased intensity and decreased frequency.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the trend and future projections of WCEs in southern China, which is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts.
• The use of emergent constraints to constrain climate model simulations reduces uncertainty in WCE projections.

Funding

• National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFA0607800)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875049)

Citation

@article{He2026Projecting,
  author = {He, Yuan and Li, Shuanglin and Liess, Stefan and Luo, Feifei and Huang, Sijing},
  title = {Projecting Extreme Wet‐Cold Events in Southern China Based on CMIP6 Experiments With Emergent Constraints of Observable Temperature Inversion},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd046198},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd046198}
}