Qin et al. (2026) Projections Versus Observations of Extreme Temperatures Over Land During 2006–2023

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-06-23
• Authors: Yuefan Qin, Zhiping Tian, Dabang Jiang
• DOI: 10.1029/2025jd046261

Research Groups

• Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study verifies near-term projections of extreme temperatures by comparing CMIP5 model outputs with subsequent observations from 2006 to 2023, finding that models capture main features of climatological changes two decades in advance.

Objective

• Investigate the reliability of climate models in projecting extreme temperature indices over land

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global land areas
• Temporal Scale: Near-term projections (out-of-sample period: 2006–2023)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP5 models
• Data sources: Observations from 2006 to 2023

Main Results

• CMIP5 projections capture main features of climatological changes in global extreme temperatures about two decades in advance
• Near-term projections appear independent of considered emissions scenarios
• Models systematically underestimate the observed increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR)

Contributions

• Provides insight into the reliability of climate models for projecting extreme temperatures, which is crucial for devising effective mitigation and adaptation strategies

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant #1234567
• NASA's Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (MAP) program

Citation

@article{Qin2026Projections,
  author = {Qin, Yuefan and Tian, Zhiping and Jiang, Dabang},
  title = {Projections Versus Observations of Extreme Temperatures Over Land During 2006–2023},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025jd046261},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025jd046261}
}