Yang et al. (2026) Characteristics of Extratropical Cyclones Under Uniform SST Warming and Increased CO 2 Forcing in a Global Storm‐Resolving Model

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: M. M. Yang, Zhuo Wang, Lucas Harris, Kai‐Yuan Cheng
• DOI: 10.1029/2025ms005728

Research Groups

• Princeton University Department of Geosciences
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study examines extratropical cyclone responses under three scenarios: 4 K sea surface temperature warming, increased CO2 concentration, and their combination using the X-SHIELD global storm-resolving atmosphere model. The main finding is that both SST warming and CO2 forcing have distinct effects on ETC characteristics.

Objective

• Investigate the impacts of climate change on extratropical cyclones (ETCs) under different scenarios

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions
• Temporal Scale: Seasonal cycle, with a focus on winter and summer months

Methodology and Data

• Models used: X-SHIELD global storm-resolving atmosphere model with a slab ocean
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis data for comparison

Main Results

• SST warming reduces cyclone frequency in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific, especially for short-lived winter cyclones.
• CO2 forcing shows similar but weaker effects on ETC characteristics.
• SST warming increases the variability of cyclone central pressure and intensifies the strongest ETCs.
• Higher CO2 concentration reduces the frequency of intense ETCs.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on extratropical cyclones, highlighting the distinct effects of SST warming and CO2 forcing on ETC characteristics.
• The findings suggest that precipitation responses to individual forcings are approximately additive, while wind speed response is more nonlinear.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant #xxxxx
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Grant #yyyyy

Citation

@article{Yang2026Characteristics,
  author = {Yang, M. M. and Wang, Zhuo and Harris, Lucas and Cheng, Kai‐Yuan},
  title = {Characteristics of Extratropical Cyclones Under Uniform SST Warming and Increased CO 2 Forcing in a Global Storm‐Resolving Model},
  journal = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025ms005728},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms005728}
}