Cipollini et al. (2026) Mapping Flood Peak Distributions From Natural Conditions to Post‐Reservoir States and Vice Versa: A Simplified Analytical Framework for Uncontrolled Reservoirs With Spillways Outlet

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Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Stefano Cipollini, Elena Volpi, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Aldo Fiori
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr040350

Research Groups

• Department of Hydrology, University of [Institution]
• Institute for Water Resources Management, [Government/Research Institution]

Short Summary

This study proposes an analytical approach to evaluate the modification of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of flood peaks due to reservoir presence, incorporating key system parameters and processes. The framework effectively captures the tail behavior of peak discharge distributions.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of reservoirs on downstream flood events by modifying the CDF of flood peaks.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: River basin scale, focusing on a single river with a reservoir.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term perspective, considering annual to decadal timescales for flood event analysis.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Analytical framework based on triangular hydrograph shape assumptions.
• Data sources: Real discharge data from gauging stations, statistical characteristics of inflow hydrographs.

Main Results

• The proposed analytical approach effectively captures the tail behavior of peak discharge distributions, particularly for large hydrological variability cases.
• Reservoirs can significantly alter flood peak CDFs by variably attenuating peak flows associated with different return periods.

Contributions

• Original contribution to understanding the physical processes governing reservoir effects on downstream flood events.
• Provides a framework for accurate estimation of peak discharge distributions in both reservoir design and impact assessment contexts.

Funding

• Project [Code]: "Reservoir Impact Assessment" (RIA) funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF).
• Program: Hydrology and Water Resources Research Program (HWRP).

Citation

@article{Cipollini2026Mapping,
  author = {Cipollini, Stefano and Volpi, Elena and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Fiori, Aldo},
  title = {Mapping Flood Peak Distributions From Natural Conditions to Post‐Reservoir States and Vice Versa: A Simplified Analytical Framework for Uncontrolled Reservoirs With Spillways Outlet},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr040350},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040350}
}