Appledorn et al. (2026) More Water, More of the Time: Spatial Changes in Flooding Over 83 Years in the Upper Mississippi River Floodplain and Relationships With Streamgage‐Derived Proxies

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-01-01
• Authors: Molly Van Appledorn, N. R. De Jager, J. J. Rohweder, Marcella Windmuller‐Campione, Dale W. Griffin
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr040614

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study assessed long-term changes (1940-2022) in floodplain inundation characteristics across the upper Mississippi River using a geospatial model, revealing significant and spatially variable shifts that are not fully captured by discharge data alone.

Objective

• To assess how changes in the upper Mississippi River's hydrologic regime are expressed spatially as floodplain inundation area, frequency, depth, duration, and timing.
• To determine the degree to which spatial patterns of submergence are represented by examining discharge data alone.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Navigation pools 3–10 of the upper Mississippi River.
• Temporal Scale: 1940 to 2022 (83 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: A geospatial model to simulate daily inundation depths.
• Data sources: Simulated daily inundation depths; streamgage-derived proxies (for correlation analysis).

Main Results

• Floodplain inundation characteristics shifted significantly across navigation pools.
• The direction and magnitude of change in inundation characteristics varied by pool and by the specific metric (e.g., area, frequency, depth, duration, timing).
• Characteristics summarized at the pool scale showed correlation with streamgage-derived proxies, but the strength of this relationship was variable.
• Significant within-pool variability in inundation trends underscored the necessity of spatially explicit modeling.
• Changes in river discharge over 83 years have manifested across the upper Mississippi River floodplain in ways that are likely to impact ecological patterns and processes.

Contributions

• Provides a spatially explicit, long-term (83-year) assessment of floodplain inundation changes in the upper Mississippi River.
• Demonstrates that discharge data alone is insufficient to fully represent spatial patterns and changes in floodplain submergence.
• Highlights the importance of spatially explicit modeling for understanding complex hydrologic changes and their ecological implications.
• Identifies hydrologically sensitive areas, aiding in anticipating future impacts from shifts in river discharge under climate uncertainty.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Appledorn2026More,
  author = {Appledorn, Molly Van and Jager, N. R. De and Rohweder, J. J. and Windmuller‐Campione, Marcella and Griffin, Dale W.},
  title = {More Water, More of the Time: Spatial Changes in Flooding Over 83 Years in the Upper Mississippi River Floodplain and Relationships With Streamgage‐Derived Proxies},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr040614},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr040614}
}