Li et al. (2026) Anthropogenic Forcing Amplifies Concurrent Risk of Pluvial Pakistan–Hot Yangtze

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-04-01
• Authors: Xiao Li, Liping Zhang, Chen Hu, Gangsheng Wang, Lina Liu, Zhenyu Tang, Lixiang Zhao, Xiaodong Li, Jun Xia
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr041185

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study quantifies the role of anthropogenic forcing in driving trans-regional concurrent extreme events, specifically the 2022 Pakistan floods and Yangtze River Basin heatwaves, finding that anthropogenic forcing accounts for nearly 100% of the likelihood of such events, with their probability projected to increase significantly by the end of the century.

Objective

• To quantify the role of anthropogenic forcing in shaping trans-regional concurrent extreme events, such as the 2022 Pakistan floods and Yangtze River Basin heatwaves, and to assess their historical and future risks using combined probabilistic and storyline attribution frameworks.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Trans-regional, covering Pakistan (PKT) and the Yangtze River Basin (YRB), extending across South Asia and East Asia.
• Temporal Scale: Analysis of the July–August 2022 event, historical simulations, and future projections for 2071–2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Probabilistic attribution framework, storyline attribution framework, complex network analysis, moisture and heat budget diagnosis.
• Data sources: Historical simulations and future climate projections under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

Main Results

• The 2022 event is identified as a warming-amplified analogue of the 2010 event, driven by a westward extension of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and an eastward shift of the South Asian High (SAH).
• Moisture budget diagnosis indicates that dynamically horizontal moisture transport dominated the 2022 Pakistan precipitation, while surface cloud-radiative forcing drove the Yangtze River Basin heatwave.
• Complex network analysis reveals intensified cross-regional linkages under future SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
• Bivariate probabilistic attribution demonstrates that anthropogenic forcing accounts for nearly 100% of the likelihood of the 2022 concurrent extreme event.
• Projections show that the probability of such events could increase by 57 to 326 times by 2071–2100, relative to a historical baseline probability of 0.0015.
• Storyline attribution indicates that anthropogenic thermodynamics contributed approximately 60% and circulation dynamics contributed 40% to the 2022 event, with nearly half of the dynamic effect attributable to anthropogenic forcing.

Contributions

• Bridges a critical gap by quantitatively assessing the role of anthropogenic forcing in shaping trans-regional concurrent extreme events using a novel combination of probabilistic and storyline attribution frameworks.
• Provides the first quantitative perspective on the rising risk of concurrent Pluvial Pakistan–Hot Yangtze events under climate change.
• Offers valuable insights for regional climate resilience and adaptation planning by projecting future probabilities of such extreme events.

Funding

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Li2026Anthropogenic,
  author = {Li, Xiao and Zhang, Liping and Hu, Chen and Wang, Gangsheng and Liu, Lina and Tang, Zhenyu and Zhao, Lixiang and Li, Xiaodong and Xia, Jun},
  title = {Anthropogenic Forcing Amplifies Concurrent Risk of Pluvial Pakistan–Hot Yangtze},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr041185},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041185}
}