Rizwan et al. (2026) Irrigation Use in a Changing Landscape: A Combined Economic and Hydrologic Approach

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Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Noormah Rizwan, Jamshid Jalali, Molly Sears, Sean A. Woznicki, Tao Liu, Oskar Marko, Mirjana Radulović
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr041530

Research Groups

• Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade
• Department of Hydrology, University of Novi Sad
• Institute for Water Resources Management, Serbia

Short Summary

This study investigates how climate change affects farmers' likelihood of irrigating in Serbia and its implications on future water availability. The research finds that warmer and drier conditions strengthen irrigation incentives, leading to a modest expansion of irrigation by 2060.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between short- and long-term climatic conditions and farmers' likelihood of irrigating under climate change.
• Determine the effects of large-scale irrigation expansion on future water availability in Serbia.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Field-level analysis in Serbia, with a focus on agricultural regions.
• Temporal Scale: Analysis spans from 2010 to 2060, considering both short-term (daily) and long-term (seasonal) climatic conditions.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Integrated econometric-hydrologic modeling approach using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus (SWAT+).
• Data sources: Field-level irrigation data, climate reanalysis datasets (e.g., ERA5), and satellite-derived precipitation estimates.

Main Results

• Warmer and drier conditions strengthen irrigation incentives for farmers in Serbia.
• By 2060, an additional 11% of fields become viable for irrigation under a "dry" future climate scenario and 3% under a "wet" scenario.
• Predicted irrigation expansion exacerbates water balance deficits, particularly during dry years.

Contributions

This study provides original insights into the effects of climate-driven irrigation incentives on agricultural water management in Serbia. By jointly considering climatic and hydrological feedbacks, this research contributes to the development of more sustainable agricultural water management strategies under climate change.

Funding

• This research was funded by the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development (project number TR35039).
• Additional support was provided by the European Union's Horizon 2020 program (project number 821989).

Citation

@article{Rizwan2026Irrigation,
  author = {Rizwan, Noormah and Jalali, Jamshid and Sears, Molly and Woznicki, Sean A. and Liu, Tao and Marko, Oskar and Radulović, Mirjana},
  title = {Irrigation Use in a Changing Landscape: A Combined Economic and Hydrologic Approach},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr041530},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041530}
}