Liu et al. (2026) Contrasting Impacts of Climate and Vegetation Changes on Water Yield Across Global and Regional Scales

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Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Siyu Liu, Tao Lin, Zixu Jia, Meixia Lin, Xiangzhong Guo, Junmao Zhang, Yicheng Zheng, Yuan Chen, Hongkai Geng, Jing Lin
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr042668

Research Groups

• Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Beijing
• Department of Environmental Science, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA)
• International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy

Short Summary

This study conducted a global spatiotemporal analysis of water yield (WY) using multi-source remote sensing and meteorological data from 1982 to 2020, highlighting nonlinear and regional responses of WY to climate and vegetation changes. The results show that climate change contributed more to WY at the global scale and in humid regions.

Objective

• Investigate the relative contributions and pathways of climate and vegetation changes to water yield (WY) at global and regional scales.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, with a focus on arid and humid regions.
• Temporal Scale: 1982-2020, covering three decades of global change.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Random Forest model and Structural Equation Model.
• Data sources: Multi-source remote sensing (e.g., satellite data) and meteorological data (e.g., reanalysis).

Main Results

• WY increased at the global scale and in arid regions but decreased in humid regions.
• Climate change contributed more to WY at the global scale (R = 55.11%) and in humid regions (R = 62.00%), whereas vegetation change contributed relatively more in arid regions (R = 64.49%).
• Globally, PDSI, vapor pressure deficit, and wind speed exerted positive effects on WY, while downward surface shortwave radiation and LAI had negative effects.

Contributions

This study provides new insights into the nonlinear and regional responses of water yield to climate and vegetation changes, highlighting the importance of considering these factors in ecological restoration and water resource management.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51779011)
• NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program (Grant No. NNX17AC73G)
• European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (Grant Agreement No. 776810)

Citation

@article{Liu2026Contrasting,
  author = {Liu, Siyu and Lin, Tao and Jia, Zixu and Lin, Meixia and Guo, Xiangzhong and Zhang, Junmao and Zheng, Yicheng and Chen, Yuan and Geng, Hongkai and Lin, Jing},
  title = {Contrasting Impacts of Climate and Vegetation Changes on Water Yield Across Global and Regional Scales},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr042668},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr042668}
}