Wu et al. (2026) Global Transpiration Changes and Its Drivers in the Future

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Jie Wu, Chunmiao Zheng, Zhenzhong Zeng, Guy Schurgers
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr042783

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

The study develops a quantitative first-order attribution framework to determine how atmospheric $\text{CO}_2$, air temperature, and leaf area index (LAI) jointly influence projected changes in global plant transpiration across different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).

Objective

• To attribute projected future changes in plant transpiration ($Et$) to the opposing and interacting effects of elevated atmospheric $\text{CO}2$ concentration, air temperature ($T_a$), and leaf area index (LAI).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: Future projections based on SSP scenarios

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models.
• Data sources: CMIP6 single-forcing experiments and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) driver changes.

Main Results

• Global Trends: Projected global $E_t$ shifts from $+10.42 \pm 11.84\text{ mm yr}^{-1}$ (+3.9%) under SSP1-2.6 to $-14.33 \pm 29.91\text{ mm yr}^{-1}$ (-5.4%) under SSP5-8.5.
• Driver Influence: The negative physiological effect of elevated $[\text{CO}2]$ increasingly dominates over the positive contributions of increasing $Ta$ and LAI under stronger forcing scenarios.
• Spatial Distribution:
  • $\text{CO}2$-related reductions are widespread.
  • $Ta$-related increases are most pronounced in humid regions.
  • LAI-related increases are most pronounced in arid and semi-arid regions.
• Model Uncertainty: Inter-model spread is most significant in the LAI-related attribution term.

Contributions

• Establishes a consistent quantitative basis for interpreting the drivers of projected plant transpiration.
• Identifies the need for improved representation of plant physiological responses, vegetation structural dynamics, and land-atmosphere coupling within Earth System Models.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Wu2026Global,
  author = {Wu, Jie and Zheng, Chunmiao and Zeng, Zhenzhong and Schurgers, Guy},
  title = {Global Transpiration Changes and Its Drivers in the Future},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr042783},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr042783}
}