Okada et al. (2026) Future Warming Decreases Irrigation‐Induced Yield Benefits in Global Food Production

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Research
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Masashi Okada, Toshichika Iizumi, Yasuaki Hijioka
• DOI: 10.1029/2025wr043292

Research Groups

• International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
• University of California, Davis
• University of Oxford

Short Summary

This study compares crop yields between irrigated and rainfed conditions under multiple climate scenarios up to 2100, finding that the irrigation effect on yields decreases with warming. The effectiveness of irrigation as a buffer against crop water stress diminishes with increasing temperatures.

Objective

• Investigate how climate change affects the irrigation effect on crop yields

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global analysis of currently irrigated cropland
• Temporal Scale: Climate scenarios up to 2100, including multiple decades and centuries

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Integrated crop and water model (not specified)
• Data sources: Not specified in the abstract

Main Results

• The irrigation effect on yields remains close to current levels until mid-century (+2°C warming).
• Under a high emission scenario, the irrigation effect decreases to 64% of current levels by end-of-century (+5°C warming).
• Absolute crop production decreases by approximately 19%.
• Irrigation-induced production gains decline to 53% of current levels.

Contributions

Original contribution is the quantification of how climate-driven changes in crop water demand and supply constrain irrigation effectiveness, highlighting its diminishing role as a buffer against crop water stress with increasing temperatures.

Funding

• Not specified in the abstract

Citation

@article{Okada2026Future,
  author = {Okada, Masashi and Iizumi, Toshichika and Hijioka, Yasuaki},
  title = {Future Warming Decreases Irrigation‐Induced Yield Benefits in Global Food Production},
  journal = {Water Resources Research},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2025wr043292},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr043292}
}