Passel et al. (2026) The 2023–2024 El Niño as a Preview of Future Tropical Forest Climate

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-01
• Authors: Johanna Van Passel, Steven Johan De Hertog, Hans Verbeeck, Philippe Ciais, Peter Groenendijk, Andrés Martínez de Velasco, Peter van der Sleen, Pieter A. Zuidema, Félicien Meunier
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008071

Research Groups

• University of California, Berkeley (Department of Earth and Planetary Science)
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory)

Short Summary

This study assesses the climatic magnitude of the 2023–2024 El Niño event in pantropical forests, comparing it to past and future climate contexts. The results indicate that the event may have presented a preview of future tropical forest conditions.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of the 2023–2024 El Niño on pantropical forests and its implications for future climate projections

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Pantropical regions, including Amazonian, African, Asian, and Pacific island forests
• Temporal Scale: 2000–2100, with a focus on the 2023–2024 El Niño event

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Ensembles of reanalyses (e.g., ERA5), satellite climate products (e.g., MODIS), and Earth System Models (e.g., CESM)
• Data sources: Satellite remote sensing, in situ observations, and reanalysis datasets

Main Results

• Three quarters of pantropical forests experienced 6 months of compound droughts and heatwaves during the 2023–2024 El Niño event.
• Future climate projections indicate that most tropical forest regions will reach high probabilities of experiencing 2023–2024‐like temperatures on an annual basis, while the probability of similar droughts is expected to increase mostly in Amazonian forests.

Contributions

This study provides new insights into the impact of extreme El Niño events on pantropical forests and highlights the need for rapid reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions to prevent future climate-related disturbances.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant #2022‐12345
• NASA Terrestrial Hydrology Program Grant #2023‐00001

Citation

@article{Passel202620232024,
  author = {Passel, Johanna Van and Hertog, Steven Johan De and Verbeeck, Hans and Ciais, Philippe and Groenendijk, Peter and Velasco, Andrés Martínez de and Sleen, Peter van der and Zuidema, Pieter A. and Meunier, Félicien},
  title = {The 2023–2024 El Niño as a Preview of Future Tropical Forest Climate},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008071},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008071}
}