Sunkara et al. (2026) Unraveling the Drivers of Water Shortage Across Spatial Scales and Sectors in Colorado's West Slope River Basins

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Sai Veena Sunkara, David Gold, Patrick M. Reed
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008137

Research Groups

• University of Colorado Boulder Department of Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study investigates the drivers of mid-century water shortages in Colorado's West Slope Basins by integrating large-scale exploratory modeling with diagnostic sensitivity analysis. The results reveal basin-specific dominant drivers of water stress.

Objective

• Identify the primary drivers of plausible mid-century water shortages in Colorado's West Slope Basins

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Basin, district, and sectoral scales within Colorado's West Slope Basins
• Temporal Scale: Mid-century (2030s-2050s) relative to historical baseline (1971-2015)

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Multi-site Hidden Markov Model (HMM)
  • StateMod water allocation model
• Data sources:
  • Historical streamflow data
  • Projected demand changes across sectors

Main Results

• Dominant drivers of water shortages vary markedly by basin, district, major reservoir, and sector
• Basin-specific insights into the most influential factors shaping future water stress in Colorado's West Slope Basins

Contributions

• Provides actionable, scale-specific insights into the most influential factors shaping future water stress in Colorado's West Slope Basins
• Contributes to the understanding of the relative influence of uncertain natural and human drivers of water shortages in the region

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant # [insert grant number]
• University of Colorado Boulder Research Fund

Citation

@article{Sunkara2026Unraveling,
  author = {Sunkara, Sai Veena and Gold, David and Reed, Patrick M.},
  title = {Unraveling the Drivers of Water Shortage Across Spatial Scales and Sectors in Colorado's West Slope River Basins},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008137},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008137}
}