Senigalliesi et al. (2026) Drivers of Water Resource Changes Over the Mediterranean Climate Regions of the Northern Hemisphere

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Vincenzo Senigalliesi, Annalisa Cherchi, Simone Gelsinari, A. Alessandri
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008223

Research Groups

• University of California, Department of Earth System Science
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Hydrology and Climate Group

Short Summary

This study investigates the drivers of Total Water Storage (TWS) variability in Mediterranean Climate Regions using GRACE/GRACE‐FO satellite observations. The research reveals that temperature and precipitation are primary drivers of TWS variance, with increasing temperature governing long-term decline.

Objective

• Investigate the drivers of Total Water Storage (TWS) variability in Mediterranean Climate Regions

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Euro-Mediterranean (Euromed) and Western United States (WUS) regions
• Temporal Scale: 2002–2023, with projections up to 2100 under the SSP2‐4.5 scenario

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)
• Data sources: GRACE/GRACE‐FO satellite observations of Total Water Storage (TWS)

Main Results

• Temperature and precipitation are primary drivers of TWS variance, explaining 37% and 36%, respectively.
• Intensity (above 95th Percentile; IPA95P) and Intermittency of storms above 5 mm (MDDA5) explain a smaller yet non-negligible fraction (up to 15%) of TWS variability.
• Precipitation primarily drives interannual TWS variability, whereas increasing temperature governs the long-term decline.

Contributions

• This study provides critical insights into the vulnerabilities of Mediterranean Climate Regions to global warming and hydroclimatic change.
• The findings highlight the importance of considering complementary precipitation features in understanding TWS variability.

Funding

• European Research Council (ERC) under grant agreement 724090
• National Science Foundation (NSF) under award number 2021234

Citation

@article{Senigalliesi2026Drivers,
  author = {Senigalliesi, Vincenzo and Cherchi, Annalisa and Gelsinari, Simone and Alessandri, A.},
  title = {Drivers of Water Resource Changes Over the Mediterranean Climate Regions of the Northern Hemisphere},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008223},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008223}
}