Lu et al. (2026) Spatiotemporal Propagation and Future Risks of Agricultural Drought in Response to Meteorological Drought Across Asia

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-28
• Authors: Dang Lu, Qing Yang, Qiang Zhang, Gengyuan Liu, Zhifeng Yang, Yali Zhang, Ting Liu, Wei Wei
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008228

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study identified meteorological and agricultural drought events in Asia using CMIP6 multi-model data and an improved clustering algorithm, analyzing their spatiotemporal differentiation, migration patterns, and response relationships under historical and future Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to understand future drought risk.

Objective

• To clarify the changing patterns and response relationships of meteorological and agricultural drought types in Asia under different future Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to inform risk management and climate change adaptation.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Asia (continental)
• Temporal Scale: Historical scenario and future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), with projections extending to at least 2058.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multi-model data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase VI (CMIP6).
• Data sources: CMIP6 multi-model data. An improved three-dimensional clustering algorithm was used for event identification.

Main Results

• Under the historical scenario, agricultural drought (AD) events outnumbered meteorological drought (MD) events by 77 occurrences, with AD events having an average duration 0.2 months shorter than MD events.
• The spatiotemporal correlation between MD and AD varied regionally, being strongest in Central Asia and southern East Asia, but weak or negative in North Asia and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
• Under future scenarios (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5), meteorological droughts exhibited longer durations, and both drought types showed higher severity.
• The average duration of MD events increased from 2.3 months under SSP1-2.6 to 3.9 months under SSP5-8.5.
• The average migration distance of MD events extended from 1,166.3 km to 2,650.4 km across the SSP scenarios.
• The proportion of matched pairs where MD preceded AD rose significantly from 29% under SSP1-2.6 to 60% under SSP5-8.5.
• A model-derived crossover between the fitted Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) trends is projected around 2058 under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

Contributions

• Reveals the complex and transitive nature of future drought risk in Asia.
• Provides a scientific basis for formulating targeted drought-resistance strategies and climate change adaptation plans.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Lu2026Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Lu, Dang and Yang, Qing and Zhang, Qiang and Liu, Gengyuan and Yang, Zhifeng and Zhang, Yali and Liu, Ting and Wei, Wei},
  title = {Spatiotemporal Propagation and Future Risks of Agricultural Drought in Response to Meteorological Drought Across Asia},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008228},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008228}
}