Pfleiderer et al. (2026) Heat Extremes Within Hot Summer Seasons Intensify More Than in Average Summers Under Global Warming

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-01
• Authors: Peter Pfleiderer, Robin Noyelle, Sebastian Sippel
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008241

Research Groups

• Climate Modeling Branch, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Short Summary

This study investigates changes in the persistence and intensity of temperature anomalies beyond summer mean temperature change, finding that these have increased considerably in 100-year summers due to small changes in soil moisture and land-atmosphere energy fluxes.

Objective

• Investigate the drivers of heat persistence and intensity in mid-latitude regions, particularly Europe

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global climate model simulations with a focus on western Europe
• Temporal Scale: 100-year summers, comparing current and pre-industrial climates

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CESM2 (Community Earth System Model version 2)
• Data sources: Climate model output, initialized from various ocean and land surface conditions

Main Results

• The persistence and intensity of temperature anomalies beyond summer mean temperature change have increased considerably in 100-year summers.
• Changes in soil moisture and its seasonal cycle of summer drying drive these changes, along with corresponding changes in land-atmosphere energy fluxes.

Contributions

• This study clarifies the role of soil moisture and land-atmosphere interactions in driving heat persistence and intensity, providing new insights into the mechanisms behind extreme heat events.
• The findings have implications for predicting future heatwaves and their potential impacts on European societies and ecosystems.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant number [insert grant number]
• European Research Council (ERC) grant number [insert grant number]

Citation

@article{Pfleiderer2026Heat,
  author = {Pfleiderer, Peter and Noyelle, Robin and Sippel, Sebastian},
  title = {Heat Extremes Within Hot Summer Seasons Intensify More Than in Average Summers Under Global Warming},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008241},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008241}
}