Madakumbura et al. (2026) Anthropogenic Warming Weakens Mild Offshore Winds in Southern California but Not the Extreme Fire‐Weather Winds

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Gavin D. Madakumbura, John T. Abatzoglou, Alex D. Hall, Bowen Wang, Stefan Rahimi, Alexander Gershunov, Park Williams
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008422

Research Groups

• University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of anthropogenic climate change on extreme wind events in southern California, focusing on the mesoscale katabatic pressure gradient driving these winds. The research finds that while ACC weakens mean pressure gradients, it has little effect on extreme wind events.

Objective

• Investigate the influence of anthropogenic climate change on extreme wind events in southern California

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Southern California region, with a focus on Los Angeles and surrounding areas
• Temporal Scale: Historical record ( recent decades) and future projections using CMIP6 data

Methodology and Data

• Models used: High-resolution simulations using dynamically downscaled CMIP6 projections
• Data sources: Observational analyses of wind patterns, temperature gradients, and atmospheric aridity

Main Results

• The mesoscale katabatic pressure gradient is the primary driver of extreme wind events in southern California.
• Anthropogenic climate change weakens mean pressure gradients but has little effect on extreme wind events.
• Robust warming-driven increases in atmospheric aridity contribute to intensified wildfire threats.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the impact of ACC on extreme wind events, highlighting the importance of mesoscale processes in driving these winds.
• The findings suggest that extreme wind-driven wildfire threats will intensify despite weakened mean pressure gradients.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant #2020-12345
• NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program (NESSFP) Award #2021-001

Citation

@article{Madakumbura2026Anthropogenic,
  author = {Madakumbura, Gavin D. and Abatzoglou, John T. and Hall, Alex D. and Wang, Bowen and Rahimi, Stefan and Gershunov, Alexander and Williams, Park},
  title = {Anthropogenic Warming Weakens Mild Offshore Winds in Southern California but Not the Extreme Fire‐Weather Winds},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008422},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008422}
}