Mao et al. (2026) How Precipitation Timing Asymmetry Restructures Vegetation Phenology in Water‐Limited Ecosystems

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Jianwei Mao, Yu Zhang, Wei Yan, Yonglong Han, Shuai Wu, Jian Liu, Lin Han, Yonghui Wang, Xiaofei Ma
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008429

Research Groups

• Institute of Desert Ecology, Northwest University
• Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley

Short Summary

This study challenges the conventional view that temperature initiates vegetation growth by demonstrating that precipitation timing is a critical driver in water-limited ecosystems. The research reveals that nighttime precipitation amount surpasses temperature as the primary spring onset driver in hyperarid regions.

Objective

• Investigate the role of precipitation timing in dryland phenology and its impact on Earth system model development and ecological forecasting.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Northwestern China's drylands, with a focus on the Tarim Basin Desert Area (TBDA) and Hexi Corridor.
• Temporal Scale: 22 years of Enhanced Vegetation Index data from 1999 to 2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: XGBoost machine learning model for attribution analysis and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM).
• Data sources: Multi-source hourly precipitation products, including the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM).

Main Results

• Regional spring onset advances at 2.2 days·decade−1 on average in northwestern China's drylands.
• The Tarim Basin Desert Area (TBDA) experiences a more rapid advancement of spring onset, with a rate of 3.4 days·decade−1.
• Nighttime precipitation amount surpasses temperature as the primary spring onset driver in the TBDA, accounting for 24.8% of total SHAP importance.
• PLS-SEM results show that nighttime precipitation exerted a stronger total effect on spring onset than daytime precipitation in the hyperarid TBDA.

Contributions

This study extends our understanding of dryland phenology by highlighting the critical role of precipitation timing, particularly in hyperarid regions. The findings have significant implications for Earth system model development and ecological forecasting across expanding arid regions.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41871037)
• Chinese Academy of Sciences' Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA20060402)

Citation

@article{Mao2026How,
  author = {Mao, Jianwei and Zhang, Yu and Yan, Wei and Han, Yonglong and Wu, Shuai and Liu, Jian and Han, Lin and Wang, Yonghui and Ma, Xiaofei},
  title = {How Precipitation Timing Asymmetry Restructures Vegetation Phenology in Water‐Limited Ecosystems},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008429},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008429}
}