Xu et al. (2026) Projecting Compound Wind‐Rainfall Hazards From Tropical Cyclones in China Under Climate Change

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Lishu Xu, Liang Gao, Haoxuan Du
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008431

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University
• National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation

Short Summary

This study investigates the evolution of compound hazards from tropical cyclones (TCs) in coastal China under a changing climate, projecting significant increases in wind and rainfall extremes by 2100. The analysis reveals a northward shift in TC track density, intensification of wind speeds, and amplification of rainfall accumulations.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of climate change on compound hazards from tropical cyclones (TCs) in coastal China

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Coastal regions of China
• Temporal Scale: 1980 to 2100

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical-dynamical TC model with bias-corrected ensembles from CMIP6 projections
• Data sources: Satellite, observation, reanalysis data for wind and rainfall fields

Main Results

• Northward shift in TC track density by up to 155.8% in the Yellow Sea area by end-century
• 100-year return period wind speeds intensify with an average of 17.2%
• 24-hr rainfall accumulations rise by 43%
• Joint return periods corresponding to historical 100-year wind-rain extremes shorten significantly (factor of 2-80)

Contributions

• Provides original insights into the evolution of compound hazards from TCs in coastal China under climate change
• Highlights the need for multi-hazard early warning systems that account for co-occurrence of wind and rainfall

Funding

• National Key Research and Development Program of China (2020YFA0607802)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (41975073)

Citation

@article{Xu2026Projecting,
  author = {Xu, Lishu and Gao, Liang and Du, Haoxuan},
  title = {Projecting Compound Wind‐Rainfall Hazards From Tropical Cyclones in China Under Climate Change},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008431},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008431}
}