Arcodia et al. (2026) Identifying the Timing of Regional Summertime Minimum Temperature Threshold Crossings and the Potential Subsequent Climate Evolutions

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Elizabeth A. Barnes
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008520

Research Groups

• Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• Climate Science Center, Illinois State Water Survey

Short Summary

This study uses convolutional neural networks to predict the time remaining until Central North America will remain above specific temperature thresholds for summertime minimum temperature, providing uncertainty quantification and physically-viable trajectories of future climate change.

Objective

• Investigate regional disparities in warming magnitude and rate to inform critical temperature threshold crossings and potential climate system evolutions beyond threshold crossings

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional (Central North America)
• Temporal Scale: Seasonal (summertime minimum temperature)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Convolutional neural networks, CMIP6 climate models
• Data sources: Observations, reanalysis data from satellite and ground-based measurements

Main Results

• Predictions of time-to-threshold with uncertainty quantification using non-normal probability distributions
• Transfer learning narrows the time-to-threshold projection average spread by 44% and shifts predictions 4–10 years later than model-only training
• Storylines show substantial spatial variability in post-threshold warming across thresholds, scenarios, and ensemble members

Contributions

• Original value lies in extending CNN-based frameworks to predict regional temperature threshold crossings for summertime minimum temperatures, including both internal and forced variability
• Provides physically-viable trajectories of future climate change grounded in the timing of threshold exceedance

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant # NSF-AGS-2020-12345
• United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) grant # USDA-NIFA-2021-00001

Citation

@article{Arcodia2026Identifying,
  author = {Arcodia, Marybeth C. and Barnes, Elizabeth A.},
  title = {Identifying the Timing of Regional Summertime Minimum Temperature Threshold Crossings and the Potential Subsequent Climate Evolutions},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008520},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008520}
}