Kang et al. (2026) High‐Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Refines the Time of Emergence of Sea Level Rise in the Northwestern Pacific

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Yu-Kyeong Kang, Yang‐Ki Cho, Yong‐Yub Kim, Seok-Geun Oh, Bong‐Gwan Kim, Gwang‐Ho Seo, Kwang-Young Jeong
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008543

Research Groups

• National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
• University of Tokyo
• Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

Short Summary

This study estimates the time of emergence (ToE) of sea-level rise in Northwestern Pacific marginal seas using high-resolution dynamical downscaling, highlighting the importance of resolving mesoscale and boundary-current variability.

Objective

• Estimate the ToE of sea-level rise in Northwestern Pacific marginal seas under anthropogenic climate change

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional scale (Northwestern Pacific marginal seas)
• Temporal Scale: 21st century, through 2100

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) GCMs under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
• Data sources: Historical simulations, CMIP6 GCM outputs, satellite observations of sea surface height variability

Main Results

• High-resolution regional simulations better reproduce observed sea surface height variability associated with strong boundary currents and mesoscale activity than coarse-resolution GCMs.
• Emergence occurs later in the regional simulations due to stronger internal variability reducing the signal-to-noise ratio.
• Delays are largest in the deep East Sea/Sea of Japan (EJS), where steric variability dominates total variability.

Contributions

• This study highlights the importance of resolving mesoscale and boundary-current variability in estimating the ToE of sea-level rise in dynamically active marginal seas, improving coastal risk assessment and sea-level projections.

Funding

• This research was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI Grant Number 18H01249.

Citation

@article{Kang2026HighResolution,
  author = {Kang, Yu-Kyeong and Cho, Yang‐Ki and Kim, Yong‐Yub and Oh, Seok-Geun and Kim, Bong‐Gwan and Seo, Gwang‐Ho and Jeong, Kwang-Young},
  title = {High‐Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Refines the Time of Emergence of Sea Level Rise in the Northwestern Pacific},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008543},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008543}
}