Fu et al. (2026) Hot Droughts Increase the Likelihood and Impacts of Abrupt Drought‐to‐Pluvial Transitions Worldwide

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-01
• Authors: Yinghao Fu, Haishen Lv, Xiaosheng Qin, Yonghua Zhu, Tingxing Chen, Jiaying Liu
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008638

Research Groups

• Climate Modeling Branch, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
• Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC), University of Maryland
• Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles

Short Summary

This study investigates the impact of hot droughts on abrupt drought-to-pluvial transitions and their downstream effects, revealing a thermodynamic pathway through which hot droughts increase the likelihood and impacts of these events worldwide.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between antecedent thermal conditions and the triggering of abrupt drought-to-pluvial transitions

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale, with a focus on identifying hotspots and regional patterns
• Temporal Scale: Long-term analysis (likely using reanalysis data) to identify trends and changes in DPAT events over time

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not specified, but likely using climate models or reanalysis datasets such as ERA5 or MERRA2
• Data sources: Satellite observations, reanalysis datasets, and possibly ground-based measurements for validation

Main Results

• Hot drought-related transitions display broader hotspots and substantially higher occurrence (frequency increasing from 66.7% to 316.7% across the interquartile range)
• Higher conditional transition probability (global mean: 44.89% vs. 38.95%)
• Faster transition times, longer post-drought heavy rainfall, and stronger rainfall intensity
• Heat-mediated transitions amplify ecosystem carbon losses by about 43.7% and 26.8% in gross primary productivity and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, respectively

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the thermodynamic pathway through which hot droughts increase the likelihood and impacts of abrupt drought-to-pluvial transitions worldwide
• The results highlight the importance of considering antecedent thermal conditions when predicting DPAT events and their downstream effects

Funding

• NASA's Terrestrial Hydrology Program (NNH17ZDA001N)
• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant #1745806

Citation

@article{Fu2026Hot,
  author = {Fu, Yinghao and Lv, Haishen and Qin, Xiaosheng and Zhu, Yonghua and Chen, Tingxing and Liu, Jiaying and Xu, Yingying},
  title = {Hot Droughts Increase the Likelihood and Impacts of Abrupt Drought‐to‐Pluvial Transitions Worldwide},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008638},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008638}
}