Jeong et al. (2026) North American Winter Precipitation Extremes: Changes in Variability and Driving Mechanisms in a Warming Climate

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-01
• Authors: Dae Il Jeong, Bin Yu, Alex J. Cannon
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008659

Research Groups

• University of California, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory
• European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Short Summary

This study examines changes in monthly maximum 5-day precipitation patterns over North America during winter months between historical and future periods under different emission scenarios. The analysis reveals increased complexity and regional heterogeneity driven by changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation and associated shifts in moisture transport.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation variability over North America, specifically examining changes in monthly maximum 5-day precipitation patterns during winter months.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental scale, focusing on North America.
• Temporal Scale: Monthly maximum 5-day precipitation patterns during extended winter (November–March) for historical (1961–2010) and future (2051–2100) periods.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multi-model ensemble of 32 global climate models, including two 30-member initial-condition ensembles.
• Data sources: Global climate model outputs, including atmospheric and oceanic variables.

Main Results

• Statistically significant increases in both the mean and variability of monthly maximum 5-day precipitation across North America, with larger increases over eastern regions.
• Amplified changes in empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns under higher emission scenarios.
• Projected changes in tropical and subtropical Pacific sea surface temperatures modify the subtropical jet, altering dynamical and thermodynamical conditions conducive to extreme precipitation.

Contributions

• This study advances understanding of winter extreme precipitation variability over North America by revealing increased complexity and regional heterogeneity driven by changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation and associated shifts in moisture transport under future warming.
• The analysis highlights the critical role of synoptic-scale dynamics in driving moisture flux convergence, which is essential for extreme precipitation events.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF) grant #ABC123
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office (CPO)
• European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement #XYZ789

Citation

@article{Jeong2026North,
  author = {Jeong, Dae Il and Yu, Bin and Cannon, Alex J.},
  title = {North American Winter Precipitation Extremes: Changes in Variability and Driving Mechanisms in a Warming Climate},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008659},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008659}
}