Zhang et al. (2026) Drought Propagation in Mainland China Is More Strongly Associated With Precipitation Partitioning Than With Bulk Precipitation: Historical Patterns and Future Projections

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Qi Zhang, Chiyuan Miao, Xuewei Fan, Jiaojiao Gou, Yuanfang Chai, Jiajia Su, Xufeng Mao, Juntai Han, Meiliang Zhao
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef008796

Research Groups

• State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University
• Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Short Summary

This study investigates the role of precipitation frequency and intensity in regulating meteorological drought propagation to hydrological drought under natural conditions across mainland China. The results highlight the critical importance of precipitation partitioning in regulating drought propagation.

Objective

• Investigate the relationship between precipitation frequency and intensity with drought propagation time (DPT) and drought response rate (DRR) under natural conditions

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mainland China, covering a vast range of aridity classes from humid to hyper-arid regions.
• Temporal Scale: Long-term analysis (1981–2019), with future climate projections for 2030–2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) for spatial analysis, and future climate projections from CMIP5 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.
• Data sources: Precipitation data from the China Meteorological Administration, and drought indices derived from satellite observations.

Main Results

• DRR declines significantly with aridity, with 22.9% of the study area showing DRR values of ≤0.2.
• GWR results indicate that precipitation intensity and frequency exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity in regulating DPT.
• Future changes in drought propagation are driven less by shifts in mean precipitation intensity than by increasing uncertainty in precipitation-frequency effects.

Contributions

This study provides a natural-condition baseline for drought early warning and climate adaptation in water-limited regions, highlighting the critical role of precipitation partitioning in regulating drought propagation.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51879202)
• Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20060403)

Citation

@article{Zhang2026Drought,
  author = {Zhang, Qi and Miao, Chiyuan and Fan, Xuewei and Gou, Jiaojiao and Chai, Yuanfang and Su, Jiajia and Mao, Xufeng and Han, Juntai and Zhao, Meiliang},
  title = {Drought Propagation in Mainland China Is More Strongly Associated With Precipitation Partitioning Than With Bulk Precipitation: Historical Patterns and Future Projections},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef008796},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef008796}
}