Fu et al. (2026) Grain Expansion in China's Drylands Secures Food but Intensifies Environmental Trade‐Offs

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-01
• Authors: Fengyu Fu, Shuai Wang, Xutong Wu, Lu Yu, Shuangshuang Zi, Jiafen LI, José M. Grünzweig, Lixin Wang, Bojie Fu
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef009127

Research Groups

• Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
• Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation (Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River and Huai River), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs

Short Summary

This study assessed the expansion of maize, wheat, and rice cultivation in China's drylands from 2000 to 2019, revealing that competitive yields were maintained through elevated inputs, potentially leading to a "high-yield trap."

Objective

• Investigate the spatially heterogeneous yield-input trade-offs in newly cultivated croplands in China's drylands.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale, with a focus on China's drylands.
• Temporal Scale: 2000–2019 period of crop expansion.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Machine-learning models for estimating expected yields under typical local production conditions, coupled with a process-based crop water-demand model.
• Data sources: Harmonized 1-km crop maps, gridded fertilizer and pesticide data sets.

Main Results

• Competitive expected yields in newly cultivated croplands, with ∼60% exceeding stable-area benchmarks.
• Higher input burdens in expansion areas, including median fertilizer inputs (11.1%–18.1%), pesticide inputs (3.2%–15.5%), and blue-water demand (3.2%–11.7%) increases.

Contributions

• Quantification of the spatially heterogeneous yield-input trade-offs in China's drylands, highlighting the potential for a "high-yield trap" through input-dependent yields.
• Emphasis on differentiated zoning centered on yield benefits, input efficiency, and resource sustainability for future dryland agriculture.

Funding

• National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFC0401405)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (41603053)

Citation

@article{Fu2026Grain,
  author = {Fu, Fengyu and Wang, Shuai and Wu, Xutong and Yu, Lu and Zi, Shuangshuang and LI, Jiafen and Grünzweig, José M. and Wang, Lixin and Fu, Bojie},
  title = {Grain Expansion in China's Drylands Secures Food but Intensifies Environmental Trade‐Offs},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef009127},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef009127}
}