Tebaldi et al. (2026) Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Precipitation and Heat Extremes Over Tropical Land Regions: An Amazon Story

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Identification

• Journal: Earth s Future
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-09-01
• Authors: Claudia Tebaldi, Lai-Yung Ruby Leung, Oluwayemi A. Garuba, Sourav Taraphdar, Noah Prime, Siddarth Durga
• DOI: 10.1029/2026ef009497

Research Groups

• Earth System Models Intercomparison Project (EMIP)
• Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

Short Summary

This study analyzes super-ensemble simulations of seven Earth System Models to investigate delays in the onset of the rainy season and changes in heat extremes over tropical land regions. The Amazon region shows a significant trend towards delayed precipitation onset and more intense hot days during the dry season.

Objective

• Investigate the impact of greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol forcings on the timing of the rainy season and heat extremes over tropical land regions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Tropical land regions, with a focus on the Amazon region.
• Temporal Scale: 1979-present, with a focus on long-term trends.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Seven Earth System Models (EMIP models) participating in the CMIP project.
• Data sources: Daily precipitation and maximum temperature observations from satellite and reanalysis datasets.

Main Results

• The Amazon region shows a significant trend towards delayed precipitation onset and more intense hot days during the dry season, with temperatures warmer than expected from overall mean warming.
• Greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol forcings are necessary to explain the observed behavior across models, with aerosol being the dominant forcing for most models.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the role of greenhouse gas concentrations and aerosol forcings in shaping regional climate patterns over tropical land regions.
• The findings highlight the importance of considering differential hemispheric warming and its impact on the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migration.

Funding

• This research was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 program under grant agreement No. [insert grant number].

Citation

@article{Tebaldi2026Changes,
  author = {Tebaldi, Claudia and Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby and Garuba, Oluwayemi A. and Taraphdar, Sourav and Prime, Noah and Durga, Siddarth},
  title = {Changes in the Seasonal Cycle of Precipitation and Heat Extremes Over Tropical Land Regions: An Amazon Story},
  journal = {Earth s Future},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026ef009497},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef009497}
}