Fu et al. (2026) Evaluation and Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Conterminous United States in High‐Resolution Global and Regional Simulations

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-06
• Authors: Dan Fu, Andreas Franz Prein
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl122237

Research Groups

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• University of Colorado Boulder
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Short Summary

This study evaluates the simulation and future evolution of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the conterminous United States using high-resolution models, highlighting robust projected changes in extreme precipitation.

Objective

• Investigate the performance and future evolution of MCSs under climate change

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental scale (CONUS)
• Temporal Scale: 2001–2020 for historical period and 21st century projections

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Community Earth System Model (CESM-HR) at high resolution
  • Convection-permitting regional simulation (CONUS404) at 4 km resolution
• Data sources:
  • Multisource satellite observations
  • In situ measurements
  • ERA5 reanalysis

Main Results

• CESM-HR accurately simulates cold-season MCS climatology and precipitation characteristics, while CONUS404 better captures warm-season MCS precipitation intensity.
• Both models project intensified MCS-related extreme precipitation by the mid-21st century.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of MCSs using high-resolution models and multisource observations, highlighting robust projected changes in extreme precipitation under climate change.

Funding

• National Science Foundation (NSF)
• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)

Citation

@article{Fu2026Evaluation,
  author = {Fu, Dan and Prein, Andreas Franz},
  title = {Evaluation and Future Changes of Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the Conterminous United States in High‐Resolution Global and Regional Simulations},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl122237},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122237}
}