Berzonsky et al. (2026) Widespread Divergence Between Precipitation and Discharge Trends Across Global Rivers

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Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-25
• Authors: Matthew P. Berzonsky, Valerie Diana Smykalov, Kayalvizhi Sadayappan, Li Li
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl122253

Research Groups

• Hydrology and Water Resources Group (University of California)
• Climate Dynamics Department (Max Planck Institute)

Short Summary

This study investigates the relationship between precipitation and river flow at 10,179 sites worldwide, revealing widespread decoupling of these two variables.

Objective

• Investigate the prevalence of diverging trends in precipitation and river discharge

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale, with data from 10,179 sites worldwide
• Temporal Scale: Long-term trends analyzed over a period of 70 years (1951–2020)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Theil-Sen regression for trend analysis
• Data sources: Caravan dataset

Main Results

• River discharge declined at 48% of sites, while precipitation declined at 52%
• Diverging trends occurred at 27% of sites, with 40% showing declining discharge despite increasing precipitation
• Magnitude of divergence increased with aridity

Contributions

• This study highlights the importance of considering precipitation extremes beyond evapotranspiration in understanding river flow changes
• Reveals widespread decoupling of precipitation and river flow, underscoring the need for sustained monitoring of river discharge

Funding

• Supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant # NSF-DUE-1812354)
• Funded by the European Research Council (ERC Grant # 725955)

Citation

@article{Berzonsky2026Widespread,
  author = {Berzonsky, Matthew P. and Smykalov, Valerie Diana and Sadayappan, Kayalvizhi and Li, Li},
  title = {Widespread Divergence Between Precipitation and Discharge Trends Across Global Rivers},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl122253},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122253}
}