Wilson et al. (2026) Projections of Earth's Hottest Surface Temperatures in CMIP6

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-11
• Authors: Anthony K. Wilson, Nicholas J. Lutsko, Daniela Faggiani Dias, Arthur J. Miller
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl122540

Research Groups

• Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) contributors
• Berkeley Earth team
• Authors' research groups (not specified)

Short Summary

This study evaluates historical and future extreme heat events using CMIP6 simulations, comparing them with Berkeley Earth data, and projects changes under different scenarios.

Objective

• Investigate the fidelity of CMIP6 models in simulating historical land heat extremes and their ability to project future changes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global land surface
• Temporal Scale: Historical (past) and future (projected)

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 simulations
• Data sources: Berkeley Earth data, satellite observations, reanalysis

Main Results

• Historical extremes are underestimated by CMIP6 models, with a 30%–40% faster warming trend in the upper tail of land heat extremes.
• Tropical land indices show amplified upper-tail warming.
• Hotspot-frequency maps reveal persistence in subtropical arid and semi-arid regions.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the fidelity of CMIP6 models in simulating historical extreme heat events and their ability to project future changes, contributing to a better understanding of land heat extremes.

Funding

• Not specified

Citation

@article{Wilson2026Projections,
  author = {Wilson, Anthony K. and Lutsko, Nicholas J. and Dias, Daniela Faggiani and Miller, Arthur J.},
  title = {Projections of Earth's Hottest Surface Temperatures in CMIP6},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl122540},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122540}
}