Sun et al. (2026) Hydrological Extremes Increase Water‐Resource Constraints Under Climate Change

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-10-07
• Authors: Siao Sun, Hui Liu, Mário J. Franca, Ali Pourzangbar, Qiuhong Tang
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl122652

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study uses a multi-model ensemble to assess how changes in hydrological low and high extremes will constrain renewable water for human use across 520 major river basins globally, finding that over 40% of basins are projected to experience declines in both lowest monthly and accessible runoff by 2100, with low emission scenarios only partially mitigating these reductions.

Objective

• To assess how projected changes in hydrological low and high extremes under climate change will constrain renewable water for human use across major river basins worldwide.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 520 major river basins worldwide.
• Temporal Scale: 2015–2100.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multi-model ensemble (specific models not detailed in abstract).
• Data sources: Not specified in the abstract.

Main Results

• More than 40% of river basins are projected to experience declines in both annual lowest monthly runoff and annual accessible runoff (total runoff excluding extreme high flows) during 2015–2100.
• Mediterranean and several scattered basins are identified as hotspots where runoff reductions exacerbate existing water scarcity.
• Low emission scenarios mitigate, but do not fully eliminate, these projected declines in water availability, highlighting hydrological co-benefits of climate mitigation.

Contributions

• Explicitly incorporates hydrological extremes into water availability assessment, which is identified as a novel approach.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Sun2026Hydrological,
  author = {Sun, Siao and Liu, Hui and Franca, Mário J. and Pourzangbar, Ali and Tang, Qiuhong},
  title = {Hydrological Extremes Increase Water‐Resource Constraints Under Climate Change},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl122652},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122652}
}