Ren et al. (2026) Unprecedented Wetting Over Western Central Asia Dominated by Internal Climate Variability

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-07-14
• Authors: Yu Long Ren, Jianping Huang, Haipeng Yu, Xiaolu Fan, Kangjie Ma, Xin Wang, Yongqi Gong, Yihui Xu, Jinxia Zhang
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl122792

Research Groups

• Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• University of Science and Technology of China

Short Summary

This study investigates the abrupt wetting of spring precipitation in western Central Asia from 1988 to 2007, attributing it primarily to internal climate variability rather than external forcing. The research identifies mid-high-latitude North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (NAS) variability as a key driver of this change.

Objective

• Investigate the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability to the wetting of spring precipitation in western Central Asia from 1988 to 2007

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Western Central Asia, with a focus on spring precipitation patterns.
• Temporal Scale: 20-year period (1988–2007) with a focus on interdecadal changes.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Large ensemble simulations using observation data sets.
• Data sources: Observation data sets and large ensemble simulations, including satellite and reanalysis datasets.

Main Results

• The wetting of spring precipitation in western Central Asia from 1988 to 2007 is primarily driven by internal climate variability (44.82%).
• Mid-high-latitude North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (NAS) variability excites a Eurasian Rossby wave train, enhancing ascent motion and moisture transport into the region.
• A negative-to-positive NAS phase transition explains 44.82% of the 1988–2007 wetting.

Contributions

• This study provides new insights into the drivers of hydroclimate variability in western Central Asia, highlighting the importance of internal climate variability and NAS-related rainfall variability.
• The research identifies a key source of predictability for hydroclimate risk on western Central Asia under mid-intensity emission scenarios.

Funding

• This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91737206) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences Youth Innovation Promotion Association (Grant No. 2019374).

Citation

@article{Ren2026Unprecedented,
  author = {Ren, Yu Long and Huang, Jianping and Yu, Haipeng and Fan, Xiaolu and Ma, Kangjie and Wang, Xin and Gong, Yongqi and Xu, Yihui and Zhang, Jinxia},
  title = {Unprecedented Wetting Over Western Central Asia Dominated by Internal Climate Variability},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl122792},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122792}
}