Pavesi et al. (2026) The Portrait of Flood Risk in Italy: Past, Present and Future, From 1870 to 2100

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Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-12
• Authors: Luciano Pavesi, José Luis Salinas, Stefano Zanardo, Maximiliano G. Sassi, Arno G. J. Hilberts, Elena Volpi, Aldo Fiori
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl122987

Research Groups

• Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bologna
• Institute for Environmental Protection and Risk Assessment (ISPRa), Italian National Research Council (CNR)

Short Summary

This study assesses the impact of climate change and urbanization on flood risk in Italy over 230 years, from 1870 to 2100. The results indicate that while historical flood risk was driven by population growth and migration, future projections suggest climate change will dominate.

Objective

• Investigate the interaction between climate change and urbanization on flood risk in Italy

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale, focusing on Italy's territory
• Temporal Scale: 230 years, from 1870 to 2100

Methodology and Data

• Models used: RESCUE-FR (large-scale flood risk model)
• Data sources: Historical population data, climate projections (e.g., CMIP5)

Main Results

• Population at risk under the 200-year return period scenario has increased over time due to urbanization.
• Climate change is projected to become the dominant driver of flood risk in Italy by the end of the century.

Contributions

• This study provides a comprehensive assessment of the interaction between climate change and urbanization on flood risk, highlighting the need for integrated risk management strategies.

Funding

• Project: "Assessment of Flood Risk under Climate Change" (PRIN 2015)
• Reference code: 20154T3X9K_001

Citation

@article{Pavesi2026Portrait,
  author = {Pavesi, Luciano and Salinas, José Luis and Zanardo, Stefano and Sassi, Maximiliano G. and Hilberts, Arno G. J. and Volpi, Elena and Fiori, Aldo},
  title = {The Portrait of Flood Risk in Italy: Past, Present and Future, From 1870 to 2100},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl122987},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122987}
}