Chang et al. (2026) Rapid Increases in Heat‐Driven Extreme Moisture Demand in the Southern Amazon

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Geophysical Research Letters
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-08-13
• Authors: Alex Chang, Yizhou Zhuang, Rong Fu, John R. Worden, Yu Gu, Marcos Heil Costa, Kaiyu Guan, Jiaying Zhang, Xiao‐Peng Song, Jonathan H. Jiang
• DOI: 10.1029/2026gl123139

Research Groups

• University of São Paulo (USP)
• National Institute for Space Research (INPE)

Short Summary

This study investigates the rapid increase in extreme vapor pressure deficit (EVPD) over the Southern Amazon during the dry season, attributing 93% and 64% of the increases to anthropogenic forcings. Climate models project a significant rise in EVPD intensities by the end of the century.

Objective

• Investigate the drivers and projected changes in extreme vapor pressure deficit (EVPD) over the Southern Amazon during the dry season.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: The study focuses on the Southern Amazon region.
• Temporal Scale: The analysis spans multiple decades, with a focus on the dry season.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate models (CMIP5/6) under SSP 2–4.5 scenario.
• Data sources: Observation-based data from surface weather stations and satellite remote sensing.

Main Results

• EVPD frequency has increased by 7.1% (or 11 more dry season days) per decade over forested areas in the Southern Amazon.
• EVPD intensity has risen at rates faster than mean vapor pressure deficit (VPD), primarily due to increasing extreme surface temperatures.
• Anthropogenic forcings are primarily responsible for 93% and 64% of the increases in EVPD frequency and intensity, respectively.

Contributions

This study provides new insights into the drivers of EVPD extremes over the Southern Amazon, highlighting the critical role of anthropogenic climate change. The findings have significant implications for understanding the risks of extreme weather conditions conducive to wildfires in the region.

Funding

• This research was supported by the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) under grant numbers 305511/2017–5 and 308732/2020–2.
• The study also received funding from the Amazon Fund under project number 2019/0001.

Citation

@article{Chang2026Rapid,
  author = {Chang, Alex and Zhuang, Yizhou and Fu, Rong and Worden, John R. and Gu, Yu and Costa, Marcos Heil and Guan, Kaiyu and Zhang, Jiaying and Song, Xiao‐Peng and Jiang, Jonathan H.},
  title = {Rapid Increases in Heat‐Driven Extreme Moisture Demand in the Southern Amazon},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl123139},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl123139}
}